The War in Middle East and Its Impact on Afghanistan

Contrary to the belief of most analysts and media, Iran’s relatively large-scale attack on Israel happened and opened another page of war and violence in the region. This event clearly showed that the Middle East and especially the Iran-Israel conflict has entered a new phase. Several decades of indirect confrontation between them in different regions and countries and extensive verbal wars at different levels ended. Although Israel had dealt blows to Iran in various forms from the past until now, the direct attack of this country on the Iranian embassy in Damascus exhausted the strategic patience of this country and finally forced Iran to attack Israel directly from inside Iran.
Afghanistan, as a country in the region and in the neighborhood of Iran, will undoubtedly suffer the consequences of this war and conflict. Whether this war expands and drags on for a long time or is managed with restraint by the parties involved and interested in the case and ends here, in both cases Afghanistan will be affected by it in a positive and negative way.
The future of this war cannot be predicted with certainty yet, but it is definitely not outside of two scenarios, i.e. the expansion and continuation of the war or termination of the war.
The probability of the first scenario being realized is potentially high, and considering the spirit and character traits we have in mind of Netanyahu, he will react against Iran’s attacks even without the support of America and the West. Although America has said that it will not participate in any aggressive attack by Israel on Iran, but if the war continues, considering the very important and strategic interests it has in Israel, it will eventually be forced to enter this war and to bear a large part of its cost. The expression of America’s concern that Netanyahu might drag America’s foot into the war proves this very well. On the other side, there is the case of a country that has passed the diplomacy stage and has fired the first shot against Israel’s various military and civilian actions and is sitting on the trigger waiting for Israel’s next reaction until, as the officials of this country have said in If Israel repeats its mistake, slap that country harder. However, the realization of this scenario is bitter and unfortunate for Afghanistan, because it may divert the world’s attention from Afghanistan and the issues that are going on there and leave this country alone. Although the disastrous withdrawal of America and NATO from Afghanistan and the war in Ukraine, this country has been far away from the attention of the world.
In another angle, the entry of America and the West into the war between Iran and Israel may change the importance and lost status of Afghanistan in their eyes and force them to pay attention to this country again. This scenario may happen while the scope of the current war increases, the US will be forced to use Afghanistan as a base to limit and exert pressure on Iran. In this case, the United States will be forced to pay attention to Afghanistan again, on the one hand, to reduce the cost of the war due to Afghanistan’s proximity to Iran, and on the other hand, due to the narrowing of Iran’s encirclement circle and exerting double pressure on that country, and take measures so that it can again to establish a foothold for himself in Afghanistan.
In both cases, Afghanistan will suffer from its negative consequences. Forgetting Afghanistan by the world and the US increases the possibility of increasing chaos in Afghanistan, because in the absence of a superior managing power, different countries with different goals and purposes will finance and support numerous groups to secure their interests in Afghanistan. According to these groups, they will start other wars in this country, but ISIS has become a potential and actual threat and has endangered the security of the country. On the other hand, the presence of America in Afghanistan again will fuel another type of war that has been going on in the country until now.